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Labor could lose if election held tomorrow: Nielsen poll

Kevin Rudd’s Labor party could lose an election held tomorrow concludes the latest Nielsen poll, with the Liberal Party equal with Labor in two party preferred figures.

Tony AbbottThis month’s Nielsen poll shows support evenly divided between Labor and the Coalition, however Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 37 percent, with the Liberal/National Party unchanged on 42 percent and the Greens picking up 1 point to 13 percent. These numbers are relatively unchanged since the last poll which had the Liberal Party slightly in front 51-49. These numbers are within the Nielsen poll’s margin of error of about 2.6 percent, so show no significant shift toward either party .

Poll numbers for Kevin Rudd however are concerning for the Labor Party leader, with his personal approval rating down 14 points to 45 percent and his disapproval rating up 13 points to 49 percent, showing voter outrage as he polarises opinion on the Super Profits Tax and ETS delay.
Despite significant lower approval for Kevin Rudd, Tony Abbott has not shown gains in his approval rating, with his approval and disapproval rating steady at 46 and 45 percent respectively.
Tony Abbott has however improved as preferred prime minister, narrowing the gap from 59-34 percent to 53-38 percent in the latest Nielsen poll.

Kevin Rudd’s Super Profits Tax also polarised voters, with support for the tax only at 44 percent, while the majority 47 percent opposed it.

The issue of the Emissions Trading Scheme is still problematic, with support for an ETS up 2 points since February to 58 percent. Voters are divided over the postponement of the ETS in much the same way as people are on the Super Profits Tax, 43 percent are in favor of postponed till 2013 and 45 percent were opposed.

Last week a Newspoll survey found Labor would lose a Federal Election held today, with two party preferred results putting the coalition in front 51-49 percent.

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David Olsen

David Olsen

An undercover economist and a not so undercover geek. Politics, business and psychology nerd and anti-bandwagon jumper. Can be found on Twitter: <a href="http://www.twitter.com/DDsD">David Olsen - DDsD</a>

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