Australia’s population is expected to grow by more than 10 per cent by 2030, adding another three million people to the country, according to property buyers agency BuyersBuyers.
Businesses react to their surroundings. Products are sold based on the strength of the customer’s needs rather than the company’s designs. As a result, it is critical for small businesses to adapt to changes in demographics and populations. Changes in population and migration impact the makeup of the workforce and the products available to the customers.
BuyersBuyers co-founder Peter Wargent noted that the Budget papers assume future net overseas migration of 235,000 per year with the permanent migration cap raised to 195,000 annually.
“Now, for the first time in a decade, we have full employment and a genuine skills shortage, and after a hiatus, we should expect a strong rebound in net overseas migration. And history suggests that we tend to underestimate population growth in Australia.
Mr Wargent added, “after a lengthy period of closed international borders, population growth hasn’t been much in the news of late. The Australian population clock ticked past 26 million, but we didn’t read too much about it in the media.
“It’s often overlooked that with Australia’s strong population pyramid and life expectancy generally increasing, the population grows naturally by around ½ per cent per annum, with births comfortably exceeding deaths.”
Even after accounting for natural population growth, the Australian population is expected to grow by 365,000 per year, resulting in an additional 2.9 million people by the end of 2030.
In the absence of a deep recession, Australia can expect a strong rebound in population growth. At first glance, the drop in borrowing capacity since 2021 could imply a 20 to 30 per cent drop in housing prices. In reality, professional earnings are now rising rapidly in nominal terms, asking rents are increasing by 20 per cent per year, and stamp duty tax reform is on the table in New South Wales.
The 30 million milestone
Furthermore, Australia’s population is expected to reach 30 million between 2029 and 2033, based on the most recent figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Population projections are based on current population trends and assumptions about future fertility, life expectancy, and migration. The ABS’s Director of Demography, Anthony Grubb, stated: “On current projections, the time it will take for the country to grow by 5 million people will be similar, if not slightly shorter, than the 14 years it took to grow from 20 million to 25 million.
“Based on the medium of our three main projection assumption series, Australia could add another 10 million people to its current population. “However, under our higher range of fertility, mortality and migration assumptions, the population would reach 35 million 5 years earlier in 2038. Conversely, under lower assumptions, the population would only reach 35 million a decade later in 2053.”
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