Job ads in Australia are up 36.1 percent in the year to August, with the latest ANZ Job Advertisements Series data showing the total number of jobs advertised up to an average of 176,239 per week (seasonally adjusted).
ANZ Job Advertisement Series is reporting strong employment growth with the increases in job ads in both July and August following a significant 6.9 percent increase over the previous three months from April to June. With the ANZ Job Advertisement series now 36.1 percent higher than it was a year ago, it remains just short of historic year on year increases of 40.2 percent seen in May 2007, and 39.9 percent below the all time job advertisement high of April 2008.
Newspaper job ads rose slightly in seasonally adjusted terms, but fell in trend terms by 0.2 percent. The rise in newspaper advertisements in August keeps yearly growth strong at 11.8 percent, but shows the shift to internet job advertisements which rose by 34.9 percent over the same period.
ANZ Chief Economist Warren Hogan expects the increase recorded in the ANZ job ads data to be reflected in Australia’s unemployment rate, with the rate to fall below the 5 percent mark for the first time since 2008.
“The pick up in job advertisements in recent months also suggests the unemployment rate is now likely to fall below 5 percent before year-end. This will provide solid support for Australian households. But it also has potential consequences for Australia’s already relatively high rate of inflation.”
Warran Hogan believes the fall in unemployed Australians will lead to inflationary pressures which will prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to increase official interest rates to 5 percent up from their current 4.5 percent by year end.
“We continue to expect the upside inflation risks, generated from a strong labour market and household sector and the ongoing terms of trade boom, will prompt the RBA to lift interest rates to 5.00 percent by year-end.” Mr Hogan said.