Zyft CEO reveals why shoppers now only buy during sales events and how this ‘wait to spend’ mentality is reshaping entire industry.
What’s happening: Australian consumers have shifted to a “wait to spend” mentality, only making major purchases during sales events like EOFY, creating extreme volatility in retail trading with sharp spikes followed by flat periods.
Why this matters: This strategic shopping behavior is making retail forecasting nearly impossible and forcing businesses to completely rethink inventory management, pricing strategies, and customer engagement as consumers trade daily luxuries for planned big-ticket purchases.
Australian retail sales jumped 4.9% year-on-year in June, but the spike wasn’t a sign of consumer confidence returning. It was proof that shoppers have fundamentally changed how they buy, creating a volatile new reality for retailers struggling to forecast demand and manage inventory.
The surge was driven entirely by end-of-financial-year sales, revealing what Richard Stevens, CEO of AI-powered price comparison tool Zyft, calls the “wait to spend” consumer mentality that’s reshaping retail calendars and forcing businesses to rethink their entire approach to customer engagement.
The ‘wait to spend’ trap
“Yesterday’s ABS Retail Trade data, revealing a 1.2% month-on-month spike in retail trading for June, is proof that the up-and-down spending volatility driven by peak sales moments is the new normal,” Stevens said.
The pattern is stark: May saw just 0.2% month-on-month growth as consumers held back, then June exploded with EOFY bargain hunters. This isn’t random, it’s strategic consumer behavior that’s turning traditional retail planning on its head.
“Following a relatively flat trading period in May, which saw just a 0.2% month-on-month increase, the bounce back last month, driven by EOFY sales, clearly illustrates the current ‘wait to spend’ consumer behaviour trend,” Stevens explained. “Instead of spreading their spending out across the year, shoppers are strategically aligning their purchases to major sales events.”
The shift creates what Stevens describes as “a minefield for forecasting and inventory management” as retailers struggle to predict when demand will spike and crash.
EOFY sales prove the pattern
The June data backs up Stevens’ analysis with surgical precision. Categories that typically benefit from strategic purchasing led the charge: household goods jumped 2.3% month-on-month, department stores rose 1.9%, and other retailing climbed 1.9%.
Meanwhile, cafes, restaurants and takeaway services fell 0.4%, suggesting consumers are cutting small, regular purchases to fund larger, planned buys during sales periods.
“This indicates that shoppers could be deprioritising the little luxuries like coffees and lunches out in favour of higher value, strategically timed purchases, particularly for discretionary items,” Stevens noted.
KPMG chief economist Dr Brendan Rynne confirmed the trend’s drivers: “As cost-of-living pressures continue, households are very much vying for bargains wherever they can, with sale items now consuming a far larger portion of our spending compared to just a few years ago.”
Black Friday psychology spreads
Stevens points to previous retail data showing this isn’t a one-off phenomenon. “Last December, trading fell 0.1% month-on-month despite the festive gift-giving season, while November rose 0.8% month-on-month, suggesting shoppers front-loaded their spending around Black Friday and Cyber Monday.”
The Black Friday mentality waiting for guaranteed discounts rather than paying full price has spread beyond November to every major sales event. EOFY, Boxing Day, Easter sales: consumers now plan major purchases around these predictable discount periods.
“This isn’t just a one-off. It echoes a pattern across past retail trading figures,” Stevens said, describing how what started as seasonal sale shopping has evolved into year-round strategic purchasing behavior.
Australian Retailers Association CEO Chris Rodwell acknowledged the challenge: “While retail sales have lifted, this doesn’t necessarily translate to a better operating position for retailers as EOFY discounts are more prominent in June.”
Coffee versus strategic purchases
The data reveals a clear trade-off in consumer spending patterns. While household goods, department stores and clothing saw significant month-on-month increases, food services declined, indicating consumers are actively redirecting spending from regular purchases to planned sales buys.
Stevens interprets this as evidence of sophisticated consumer decision-making under financial pressure. Rather than cutting spending entirely, shoppers are optimizing when and what they buy to maximize value.
“Today’s savvy shopper is using available tools to make value-driven purchase decisions long before they walk through the store door,” he said, highlighting how technology has enabled more strategic consumer behavior.
This shift from impulse buying to planned purchasing fundamentally changes the retail relationship, with consumers now viewing regular pricing as potentially wasteful rather than convenient.
Winning the new game
Despite the forecasting challenges, Stevens sees opportunities for retailers willing to adapt to the new consumer psychology.
“While the ‘wait to spend’ mentality creates a minefield for forecasting and inventory management, the shift in consumer behaviour also opens clear avenues for retailers to gain a competitive edge,” he said.
His prescription focuses on meeting consumers where they are: “Retailers who proactively engage shoppers across digital touchpoints, harness AI to deliver personalised experiences, and promote transparent pricing will be the ones that win out on loyalty in the long run.”
The 4.9% year-on-year growth suggests consumer demand hasn’t disappeared, it’s just become more concentrated and strategic. For retailers, success now depends on understanding and working with these new buying patterns rather than fighting them.
As Stevens puts it, the volatility isn’t going away. The retailers who thrive will be those who learn to surf the waves rather than get crushed by them.
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