Just one in five Aussie employees is actively job hunting right now. But Gartner research shows SMEs can’t afford to assume loyalty.
What’s happening: Gartner’s Global Talent Monitor survey, covering October to December 2025, shows Australian employee confidence in job availability has fallen to its lowest point in more than three years.
Why this matters: For SMEs without dedicated HR teams or large recruitment budgets, losing a key person or managing a disengaged one carries a cost that can ripple through the entire operation.
On the surface, a workforce that isn’t moving sounds like good news for employers. But Gartner’s latest data tells a more complicated story, and for SME owners, the nuance matters.
Gartner’s Global Talent Monitor survey, drawn from responses collected between October and December 2025, shows that confidence in job availability among Australian employees has fallen to 55.7, the lowest level recorded since at least 2022. Only 19.4 per cent of employees reported actively looking for new roles during that period. The share planning to stay in their current position climbed to 38.1 per cent, up from a three-year low of 32.9 per cent recorded at the start of 2025.
Neal Woolrich, Director of Advisory in the Gartner HR practice, said the picture is not one of contentment. “With fewer opportunities and heightened competition for open roles, Australian employees are becoming more cautious about making career moves,” he said. “This lack of confidence is creating a labour market ‘freeze’, where many workers feel stuck, hesitant to leave but also uncertain about what the market can offer.”
For small businesses, this distinction between staying and thriving is critical. Replacing an employee can cost up to 1.5 times their annual salary, a figure that makes retention genuinely valuable. But retaining a disengaged worker carries its own cost, in reduced output, low team morale, and the risk that they will leave the moment conditions improve.
AI is adding pressure
The freeze is not simply a product of economic caution. Woolrich pointed to AI adoption as a compounding factor, particularly for workers who are uncertain about how automation will change their roles.
“As AI adoption accelerates across industries, organisations are rethinking the roles and skills they need,” he said. “For employees, this shift can heighten uncertainty. They’re not just competing with other job seekers, but with rapidly evolving technology. This amplifies the sense of volatility in the job market and can contribute to a decline in job seeking activity.”
For SME owners who are introducing automation or AI tools into their operations, the message is to communicate clearly and early about what is changing and why. Employees who are left to speculate about the impact on their roles are more likely to disengage than those who feel informed and involved.
Pay pressure is real
Despite the broader anxieties at play, compensation remains the most immediate concern. Gartner’s Q4 2025 data shows pay ranked as the leading driver of attrition, the top reason workers left their organisations, a finding consistent with ongoing cost-of-living pressure across Australia.
Woolrich put it directly. “Employees are opting for security over risk,” he said. “When confidence in job availability falls, they become less likely to explore new roles, even if they’re dissatisfied. This dynamic can intensify workplace fatigue, tension and disengagement if not addressed.”
SMEs rarely have the salary budgets of larger competitors, but the data also shows that pay alone is not the full picture. Poor manager quality ranked as another top driver of exits in the same quarter, placing the quality of day-to-day leadership firmly in the conversation alongside remuneration.
Where SMEs have the edge
This is where smaller businesses can move faster than large enterprises. In an SME, the owner or manager often has a direct relationship with every team member. That visibility, if used well, is a genuine advantage.
Woolrich framed the leadership challenge clearly. “In periods of volatility, employees look to leaders for clarity, consistency and fairness,” he said. “Purpose-led leadership becomes essential, not only to retain talent, but to create confidence that the organisation can navigate uncertainty.”
The beauty of being a smaller business is the flexibility to manage employees individually. That means having direct conversations about pay expectations, being transparent about where the business is heading, and being clear about how AI or other changes will affect individual roles. These are conversations a corporate HR department runs through formal processes. An SME owner can have them over a coffee.
The Gartner data also shows that future career opportunity climbed in the attrition rankings during Q4 2025, suggesting that workers who cannot see a path forward are increasingly willing to leave when confidence returns. For SMEs, offering that sense of direction, even in a small and informal way, may be one of the most cost-effective retention tools available.
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