Australian employees are feeling more confident about their job prospects, according to recent Gartner research. This shift in sentiment, observed in the first half of 2024, may pose a retention risk for employers who were expecting the job market to remain subdued.
Confidence is creeping back
Gartner's Global Talent Monitor survey of 820 Australian employees, collected between April and June 2026, found job availability confidence rose to 56.3 in the second quarter, a modest recovery after hitting a three-year low of 55.7 at the end of 2025. Confidence in the overall business environment also climbed to its highest level in four years, reaching 48.8 in the second quarter, up from 47.4 in the previous quarter.
"Employees are beginning to see more opportunities emerge after an extended period of caution in the Australian labour market," said Neal Woolrich, Director Analyst in the Gartner HR practice. "While job confidence remains below the highs seen in 2024, employees believe they have greater choice and mobility than they did six months ago. This is creating modest movement in the job market, despite ongoing cost pressures, productivity concerns and continued uncertainty surrounding the impact of AI on jobs and skills."
Fewer workers plan to stay
That improved confidence is already showing up in job-seeking behaviour. Gartner's survey found 26.5 per cent of Australian employees were actively seeking a new role in the second quarter, up from 19.4 per cent in the previous quarter. At the same time, the number of employees intending to stay with their current employer dropped to 34 per cent, down from 38.1 per cent.
"When employees feel the market is opening up, they naturally become more willing to test their options," Woolrich said. "Organisations shouldn't assume that lower turnover levels seen in 2025 will continue indefinitely. Employees who delayed career decisions during a period of uncertainty are increasingly reassessing their next move."
The survey's driver rankings point to specific, addressable issues. Poor manager quality and a lack of respect ranked as the top two reasons Australian employees said they would leave their job in the second quarter, with respect climbing three places up the ranking compared with the previous quarter.
What employers need to shift
Woolrich says the retention strategies that worked when the market felt constrained may no longer be enough now that employees feel they have more options. "Many employees stayed put in the last year because they perceived limited external opportunities and market uncertainty, while facing cost of living pressures," he said. "But as the market starts shifting, employers now need to focus on the factors that genuinely encourage people to stay, including career growth, manager quality, flexibility and meaningful work experiences. Retention strategies built for a constrained labour market may not be sufficient in a more confident one."