Despite heavy investment in security tools, Australian SMBs face false resilience in 2026. Kaseya APAC VP Daniel Garcia shares critical data showing the gap between protection and preparedness.
What’s happening: Australian small businesses are investing heavily in AI and cybersecurity tools ahead of 2026, but new research from Kaseya reveals dangerous gaps between spending and actual readiness.
Why this matters: With 68% of organisations operating with fewer than 25 IT employees and human error predicted as the top threat vector, untested plans and hesitant AI adoption could leave Australian SMBs vulnerable and unproductive.
For Australian small business owners, the narrative for 2026 often centres on AI and cyber tools as the ultimate solution. However, Daniel Garcia, Vice President and General Manager APAC at Kaseya, warns these assumptions are creating dangerous blind spots that could cost SMBs dearly next year.
Garcia has shared predictions for 2026 backed by Kaseya’s 2025 Global IT Trends Report, highlighting two critical risks: the trust gap stalling AI returns and the rise of false resilience in cybersecurity.
The trust bottleneck
Whilst AI has generated significant noise about job displacement, Garcia argues the reality for SMBs in 2026 will be quite different. AI will serve as a force multiplier for leaner teams.
“While there is plenty of noise about AI taking jobs, the reality for SMBs in 2026 is that AI will be the ultimate force multiplier for leaner teams,” Garcia explains.
Kaseya’s research shows that 27% of IT professionals now see AI as benefitting their business, up from 20% in 2024. However, the biggest threat to AI ROI isn’t the technology itself.
“It is the ‘Trust Gap.’ Our research shows that only 12% of businesses currently trust AI to act autonomously. This hesitation is a bottleneck,” Garcia states.
To achieve actual ROI, managed service providers must bridge this gap by implementing AI where it delivers immediate, verifiable wins, specifically in end-user productivity and IT efficiency, which are now top priorities for nearly 30% of IT teams.
For the APAC region, where IT teams operate leaner, the data is striking. Research shows 68% of organisations now operate with fewer than 25 IT employees. Garcia emphasises AI isn’t about reducing headcount but preventing burnout and increasing capacity.
“We are already seeing 45% of respondents using AI to automate routine patching and scripting. The bottom line is, AI doesn’t replace your experts. By offloading repetitive maintenance to AI, you free your most valuable talent to focus on high-impact, revenue-generating initiatives that drive true business profitability,” he notes.
The message is clear: businesses must find practical ways to integrate AI into daily operations rather than expecting overnight transformation.
False sense of security
The most dangerous trend facing SMBs in 2026, according to Garcia, is a false sense of resilience. A worrying disconnect exists between the tools businesses purchase and their actual readiness to recover from an attack.
“While 76% of businesses conduct annual penetration tests, nearly one in four are inconsistent or skip it entirely. Even more concerning is Incident Response,” Garcia warns.
Kaseya’s data reveals that 27% of organisations have an IR plan but have never tested it. In a landscape where human error is predicted to be the top threat vector for the next 12 months, an untested plan is effectively no plan at all.
With phishing remaining the most relentless threat, 74% of managed service providers anticipate it being the top attack vector. This aligns with broader trends showing Australian SMBs face significant cybersecurity challenges in defending against increasingly sophisticated attacks.
What needs to change
Garcia predicts 2026 will be the year when merely checking the box is no longer sufficient.
“For SMBs, 2026 will be the year when checking the box is no longer sufficient. SMBs will increasingly demand proof of resilience, not just promises of protection. This means regular fire drills, phishing simulations, and recovery testing will move from optional add-ons to non-negotiable requirements for cyber insurance and compliance,” he states.
The shift represents a forced maturity in the market. Businesses can no longer rely on purchasing tools alone. They must actively test, train, and verify their defences work when needed most.
For Australian SMBs heading into 2026, Garcia’s message is sobering but actionable. Success requires bridging the AI trust gap by starting with small, verifiable wins whilst simultaneously moving beyond purchasing security tools to actively testing incident response capabilities.
The businesses that embrace this dual approach, combining intelligent AI adoption with proven cyber resilience, will be positioned to thrive. Those that don’t risk discovering their blind spots at the worst possible moment.
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