Before the RBA raised rates in March, Australians were already rushing to lock in credit. Equifax’s February Consumer Market Pulse shows the scale of that anticipatory movement
What’s happening: Equifax’s February 2026 Consumer Market Pulse, published before the RBA’s 17 March rate decision, shows Australian consumers were already repositioning their credit arrangements in anticipation of further rate rises.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10 per cent on 17 March. But the data suggests many Australians already saw it coming.
Equifax’s Consumer Market Pulse for February 2026, which captures credit enquiry activity before the RBA’s March decision, shows a consumer base that was actively repositioning its financial arrangements in anticipation of a shifting rate environment. The behaviour visible in the data, a rush to refinance, growing appetite for debt consolidation, declining buy now pay later activity and surging mortgage enquiries, is consistent with consumers who were reading the rate signals correctly and acting on them early.
Kevin James, Chief Solution Officer at Equifax, said the February data reflects a resilient Australian consumer navigating a complex economic environment. “The movement in the rate environment early this year has likely been a trigger for consumers to lock in credit and refinancing arrangements now to get ahead of any future rate increases,” James said.
Moving before the RBA did
Mortgage enquiries rose 8.9 per cent year on year in February, with year-to-date growth of 7.3 per cent compared to the same period in 2025, according to Equifax. New mortgage originations also increased 3.6 per cent year on year. Queensland and Western Australia recorded the strongest growth in mortgage demand during the month.
“Mortgage activity remains a primary driver of credit demand, with enquiries up +8.9% year-on-year in February. It’s likely that the 7.3% year-to-date growth in February reflects a rush of activity in a shifting rate environment,” James said.
Overall secured credit demand rose 5.5 per cent year on year while unsecured credit expanded 4.3 per cent over the same period, according to Equifax.
One of the clearest signals in the February data is the scale of refinancing activity. Refinance enquiries accounted for 34 per cent of total mortgage demand during the month, according to Equifax, with consumers split between staying with their existing lender and switching to a new one.
Demand for refinance upgrades with the same lender rose 15.2 per cent year on year, suggesting lenders were actively retaining existing customers with competitive offers. At the same time, large non-bank lenders recorded a 44 per cent jump in customers switching to them year on year, pointing to an active and competitive switching market.
“Refinance enquiries made up 34% of total mortgage demand this month, and the dynamics are interesting. We saw lenders managing to maintain many existing customers, with an overall +15.2% increase in consumers applying for refinance upgrades with their existing lenders, as Large-Non Bank lenders went after the refinancing switching market with +44% year-on-year growth,” James said.
For small business owners with mortgages or property-backed financing, the competitive refinancing market that consumers were tapping in February remains active and worth reviewing in light of the rate decision that has since followed.
Credit cards up but portfolios flat
Credit card demand rose 13.9 per cent year on year in February, marking the seventh consecutive month of double-digit annual growth, according to Equifax. However the number of opened credit card accounts remained stable year on year, a pattern James attributes to churn rather than genuine portfolio expansion.
“For a seventh consecutive month, demand for credit cards is up and in the double digits. February 2026 data shows an increase of +13.9% compared to the same time last year. However, at the same time, we’ve also seen that the number of opened credit card accounts are stable year-on-year. Coupled with continued strong credit card incentive campaigns in the market from major lenders I believe what we are seeing here is strong credit card churn activity and not activity reflecting a growing portfolio,” James said.
The practical implication is that consumers were actively shopping for better credit card deals in February, a behaviour likely to intensify following the March rate decision as household budgets tighten further.
Personal loans replace BNPL
One of the sharpest contrasts in the February data is between personal loan demand and buy now pay later activity. Personal loan demand rose 6.6 per cent year on year, with year-to-date volumes up 7 per cent compared to 2025, according to Equifax. Buy now pay later demand fell 21.7 per cent year on year over the same period.
James attributes the personal loan growth to two converging factors. “Personal Loan demand is on an upward trajectory, with year-to-date volumes increasing by +7% compared to the same period in 2025. This growth is likely being driven by consumer appetite for debt consolidation as they adapt to the rising interest rate environment. In addition, the market is evolving as Buy Now Pay Later providers diversify their portfolios to include personal loans, capturing a larger share of the credit appetite,” he said.
Auto loan demand continued its downward trend, falling 9.4 per cent year on year in February, with consumers increasingly moving toward alternatives such as novated leasing. “While Auto Loan demand has trended downward with a -9% year-on-year decline, we have observed movement in the market suggesting that consumers are increasingly looking at alternate ways to acquire vehicles, such as Novated Leasing,” James said.
What this means for small business
The Equifax February data, now read in the context of the RBA’s subsequent rate decision, paints a picture of Australian consumers who were already ahead of the rate cycle. They were refinancing, consolidating debt, churning credit cards for better deals and reducing reliance on buy now pay later before the March increase landed.
For small business owners, that forward-looking consumer behaviour is worth tracking. The RBA has indicated further tightening remains possible. If February’s data showed consumers repositioning in anticipation of one rate rise, the same behaviour is likely to continue or accelerate in the months ahead, with direct implications for consumer spending capacity and the credit environment in which small businesses operate.
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