Nvidia reports its quarterly earnings on Wednesday, and analysts say the result could shift sentiment across global and Australian markets. Here is what the numbers actually mean, reported here.
What’s happening: Nvidia reports its fiscal fourth quarter 2026 earnings after the US market close on Wednesday, 25 February. It is the most anticipated corporate earnings result of the year.
Why this matters: Nvidia’s result is no longer just a semiconductor update. It is a read on the health of the entire global AI investment cycle. Recent history shows the ASX moves quickly in response to Nvidia’s quarterly numbers, particularly in the tech sector.
By the time Australian investors sit down on Thursday morning, Nvidia will have already delivered what is shaping up to be one of the largest single-quarter revenue results in corporate history.
The company reports its fiscal fourth quarter 2026 earnings after the US market close tonight. Analysts expect earnings per share of $1.53 on revenue of approximately $65.8 billion, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates reported by Yahoo Finance. That compares to $0.89 per share and $39.3 billion in revenue for the same quarter a year ago. Nvidia’s data centre business, the engine behind the result, is projected to contribute around $60 billion of that total.
Analysts at Stifel wrote ahead of tonight that they fully expect Nvidia to exceed estimates and guide above Street expectations, pointing to continued positive data points through the quarter and a healthy spending setup heading into 2026. They identified customer spending patterns, cloud builder intentions, and supply chain data as key items to watch, noting that supply chain certainty is ensuring Nvidia continues to hold its dominant share position through 2026.
Nvidia has beaten analyst revenue estimates in 13 consecutive quarters, according to data from Benzinga, and has exceeded earnings per share expectations in 12 of those. More than 30 analysts currently maintain a consensus Buy rating on the stock, with a consensus price target of $261.54.
More than a chip company
Over the past two years, Nvidia earnings have transformed from a semiconductor update into a macro event. The company now sits at the heart of the global AI buildout, which means its results influence not just chip stocks but cloud providers, data centre operators, and broader equity sentiment.
The scale of what is flowing through Nvidia’s order books reflects just how much the world’s largest technology companies are betting on AI infrastructure. Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft collectively plan to spend $650 billion on AI capital expenditures in 2026 alone. Nvidia sits at the centre of that spending, and tonight’s result will be read as a verdict on whether that investment cycle has further to run.
The lead-up to tonight’s result has already told its own story. Nvidia is the most traded stock on Stake’s Wall Street platform over the past seven days, representing 8.15% of all activity on the platform. But the direction of that trading has been anything but straightforward.
Samy Sriram, market analyst at investment platform Stake, has been watching the sentiment shift play out in real time. “Despite the chip giant being a powerhouse in the AI boom, it has also been the number one most sold stock on the platform in the week leading into earnings,” she said. “The optimism that propelled Nvidia Corp through the end of October into early November momentarily tapered off in the week leading up to its Q3 earnings report, seeing a decisive shift toward profit taking.”
The nerves have been visible in the data this week. “Monday’s drawdown on tech stocks saw Stake traders actively take profits off the table, with the sell ratio sitting at around 50% at the end of trade on Monday and sell orders on Nvidia increasing 127% on the previous day of trade,” Sriram said.
But heading into tonight, that mood is already shifting. “In the hours leading up to the earnings, however, that sentiment shifted. Sell orders on Stake dropped 20% and buy orders were up 18% as of Wall Street’s market close on Tuesday,” she said.
It is a pattern that has played out repeatedly with Nvidia. Fear ahead of the number, then a rush back in as the bell approaches.
Sriram is watching tonight’s result as more than a revenue print. “It’s a defining moment for Wall Street investors, coming amid growing concerns about big tech’s rising capex on AI infrastructure and the possibility of an AI bubble,” she said. “Nvidia’s strong quarter, along with Q4 guidance above expectations, signals that the AI trade isn’t losing momentum and could help drive the broader market higher heading into next quarter.”
Why the ASX is watching
The direct link between Nvidia’s results and Australian market sentiment is no longer a theory. It is documented history.
When Nvidia last reported, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index slipped 2% as investors weighed the AI trade. Analysts at E*Trade, operating under Morgan Stanley, have noted that Nvidia’s quarterly updates now move markets even more than US employment data, underscoring the grip technology sentiment has on broader market confidence.
The effect is also visible at the individual stock level. The ASX tech sector dropped 4% in a single session during a recent global AI sentiment shift, with all five of its largest stocks including WiseTech, Xero, TechnologyOne, NextDC, and Life360 finishing in the red.
Nvidia’s result, and crucially the forward guidance that accompanies it, will set the tone for Australian technology and AI-adjacent stocks when the ASX opens tomorrow morning. A strong print with confident guidance is likely to lift risk appetite broadly. A miss, or cautious language around future demand, could trigger a swift pullback across the same names.
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