Home topics news via pexels News News No relief in sight: what January’s CPI tells us about the rest of 2026 Yajush Gupta February 27, 2026 Underlying inflation nudged higher in January and headline CPI stayed stuck at 3.8%. Oliver Hume’s Matt Bell explains why at least one more rate hike could be coming for businesses. What’s happening: The Australian Bureau of Statistics has released its monthly Consumer Price Index for January 2026, showing headline inflation unchanged at 3.8% year-on-year. Why this matters: With underlying inflation moving in the wrong direction and the RBA having already raised rates in February, the risk of further hikes is real, and the customers small businesses depend on are feeling it. Australia’s latest inflation figures have done little to ease the pressure on small business owners, with the January 2026 Consumer Price Index confirming that price growth remains stubbornly above the Reserve Bank’s target band and that more monetary tightening could still be ahead. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data, released on 25 February 2026, showed the CPI rose 3.8% in the 12 months to January, unchanged from December. Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics, noted that trimmed mean inflation, which strips out volatile price movements and is the RBA’s preferred guide to underlying conditions, rose from 3.3% to 3.4% over the same period. Matt Bell, Chief Economist at Oliver Hume, said the RBA would take a measured view of the result. “The RBA will look at the figures with some satisfaction