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Facebook predictions: Six things to know now

Back in early 2011, I predicted Facebook’s $100 billion valuation. Here’s what I think is coming next.

In January 2011, I wrote what was at the time an outlandish prediction: that Facebook Will Be the Next $100 Billion Company. While I was right about the outcome, I was wrong about was how it would get there; it turned out to be pure user growth—riding investor enthusiasm and pent-up Wall Street demand. Trouble is, that’s not a good recipe for Facebook out of the gates of its IPO; I expect rough waters ahead.

Here are my predictions for Facebook after this week’s IPO, as a public company.

1. Facebook Will Not Disappear

I want to make clear that as bearish as my predictions may be around valuation and expectation, I am equally confident that Facebook is not going to disappear any time soon. The network effect—i.e., the more people that use it, the better the utility for everyone—is past the point of no return. So expect it to be ingrained in more aspects of the products and services in our lives.

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