New research from Shippit shows how small retailers are losing customer loyalty and what it actually takes to keep it.
Australian shoppers are still opening their wallets. Average basket spend sits at $142.07 in 2026, roughly in line with $144.69 in 2025 and up from $137.90 in 2023. But the tolerance for a poor experience has shrunk considerably. According to Shippit’s 2026 State of Shipping Report, 68% of shoppers say they are unlikely to return to a retailer after a bad delivery experience, up from 64% last year.
More than half of Australian shoppers, 52%, say their delivery expectations have risen directly because of Amazon, a sharp jump from 31% in 2025. Among Millennials and Gen Z the figure is even higher, at 57% and 55% respectively. Amazon, Temu and Shein are forecast to control 36% of Australian ecommerce this year, and 82% of retailers say they are concerned about that growing dominance.
Rob Hango-Zada, co-founder and joint-CEO of Shippit, said the stakes have never been higher. “Costs are rising, consumer expectations are hardening, and global platforms are growing their share with every year that passes,” he said.
What shoppers actually want
When shoppers were asked what would persuade them to choose a retailer, cost-effective delivery came first at 40%, followed by fast delivery at 34%, click and collect at 23%, online inventory visibility at 22% and easy returns at 21%.
Returns are a particular sticking point. One in four consumers say they will not shop with a retailer that does not offer free or easy returns, and a further 21% say they would be hesitant. Yet only 11% of retailers currently offer free returns, down dramatically from 49% in 2018. The proportion offering easy returns more broadly has recovered to 70% in 2026 after falling to 58% in 2025, and 25% of retailers list it as a core investment priority this year.
The promise gap
One of the more striking findings in the report is the gap between what retailers say at checkout and what they actually deliver. The average transit time for a delivery in Australia is now 2.2 days, and 94.1% of all deliveries arrived on time in 2026. But retailers are still advertising 5.2 days at checkout, a three-day gap that is quietly undermining consumer confidence before a purchase is even made.
Two in three consumers say an accurate delivery date before purchase is essential or very important, and 38% say it makes them more likely to buy. Yet only 7.2% of retailers currently offer accurate delivery estimates at checkout.
Hango-Zada said closing that gap has to become a priority. “The gap between what retailers promise at checkout and what they deliver is the biggest conversion killer in ecommerce today,” he said.
How to win it back
Graham Jackson, CEO of Fluent Commerce, said the opportunity for local retailers lies in the things large marketplaces cannot easily replicate. “Local retailers can win where marketplaces struggle: trust, service, and local immediacy. That means faster and more reliable delivery to local postcodes, clearer delivery promises, convenient collection options, and truly easy returns, paired with brand experience and loyalty that marketplaces can’t replicate,” he said.
AI investment is rising, with 35% of retailers putting money into AI and automation in 2026, up from joint-second priority last year. Retailers expect the biggest returns from personalisation, conversational AI, fulfilment automation and predictive analytics. But the report flags a structural problem: two in three retailers rarely or never use delivery data to inform their operations, which limits what any AI investment can actually achieve.
Hango-Zada said the retailers making progress are not waiting for conditions to improve. “The retailers making ground aren’t waiting for conditions to ease, they’re closing promise gaps, building data foundations, and treating fulfilment as a growth lever,” he said.
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